MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 05// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF FARAULEP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SMALL POCKETS OF ISOLATED FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED OFF OF THE ANIMATED IR LOOP SHOWING MID TO LOW LEVEL TURNING AND A 091745Z 37 GHZ SSMIS PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TD 02W IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF ONE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND ONE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AS THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS AND THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. AFTER TAU 24, TD 02W WILL ROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TD 02W MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72. AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO BE 50 KNOTS. AS THE STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES IT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE ENTERING THE SULU SEA PRIOR TO TAU 96. ONCE OVER THE SULU SEA, THE WARM WATERS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AFTER TAU 96, TD 02W WILL AGAIN MAKE LANDFALL OVER PUERTO PRINCESA BEFORE EXITING OUT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AT 45 KNOTS INTENSITY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN