MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN) WARNING NR 026// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 31 NM WEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND A RAGGED AND PARTLY-OBSCURED 7-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5/5.0 FROM PGTW AND RJTD THAT REFLECT THE WEAKENING TREND. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME HOSTILE AS THE SYSTEM IS NOW ONLY EXPERIENCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HAS DRIFTED INTO COOLER WATERS (26-27 CELSIUS). FURTHERMORE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 20-30 KTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TYPHOON HAISHEN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STR, MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 06 JUST WEST OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, TRACK INLAND, MOMENTARILY EXIT INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN AFTER TAU 12, THEN INTO NORTH KOREA AND CROSS INTO MANCHURIA BEFORE TAU 36. THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, WITH THE ADDITION OF FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE RUGGED MOUNTAIN RANGES OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 30 KTS BY TAU 36. CONCURRENTLY AT TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFUM WHICH CONTINUES TO BE AN EXTREME RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER AND DRIVES THE VORTEX INTO THE STR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET AFUM.// NNNN NNNN